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These same weather conditions are responsible for a harvest starting date roughly two weeks later than normal and the latest in decades. Nonpareil almonds are ripening very unevenly in the Northern San Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys with dry nuts on the outside of the trees and “greenies” on the interior. Pollinators continue to advance and will soon be ready also. These conditions are creating a myriad of problems for farmers that are already concerned about the late start date and fears of fall rains. Simply put, there are an awfully lot of almonds that will need to be harvested in a very short time period!
The Califonia almond industry continues to achieve record shipments domestically month after month with rare exception. However, the last four months export sales have declined 23.77 percent relative to last year. 2009 shipments finished the year at 1.471 billion pounds, up 6% from last year, and more than the 2009 saleable crop of 1.364 billion pounds, leaving a carryout of ~ 306 million pounds down from 413 million pounds the previous year. The last two months have seen dramatic price fluctuations for almonds. After a surprisingly large Objective estimate and disappointing June position report, prices fell 40 to 50 cents from existing trading levels. Thankfully this precipitous decline lasted less than two weeks before prices began a sustained recovery. Today, new crop Nonpareil are trading between $1.70 and $1.90 to the grower, Carmel at just under $1.60, California’s at $1.40 to $1.50 and Standards at $1.30. Early speculation is that Nonpareil may be coming in a little lighter than predicted and prices could firm further if expectations for the ultimate crop size declines accordingly.
Posted June 24, 2010 by Dan Cummings The May Subjective Almond Crop estimate came in at 1.53 billion pounds, a little higher than most believed. It is important to remember that this subjective forecast is based on telephone interviews with only 317 of the State’s roughly 6,000 growers and represents 28% of the total bearing acreage. The 2010 Objective Almond Crop Forecast derived from field sampling of trees and measuring of nuts, will be announced on July 8. Unusually mild weather has delayed this release by more than a week as the almond crop is maturing later than normal. Rainfall this past season was normal in most areas helping to leach salt accumulations in the orchards for the first time in a few years. Reservoir levels have improved significantly and snowpack runoff is forecast at 116% to 124% of normal. Very mild temperatures thus far, in conjunction with much improved water supplies for most, have resulted in ideal conditions for vegetative growth. Growers have dramatically increased their cultural inputs relative to the last few years as improved prices mid-winter gave encouragement to improved crop values. So the big question waiting to be resolved by the July 8 Objective Crop Forecast and eventual crop is, “Do the trees look so good because the growing conditions have been excellent, or do they look so green and lush because they haven’t much crop load stress?!” Unfortunately, prices have fallen back more than 60 cents from January highs. Standards now at around $1.30 to the grower, Nonpareils at $1.90 and little premium above California’s for “preferred” varieties like Carmel. After nearly a year of record shipments each month (September missed by 2.1% and February was off last year’s record by .8%), the last two months shipments have been disappointing to some in the industry and a reason to push prices down by buyers. April was down 5.5% and May was down 23%, each from last year. Nevertheless, these last two month’s shipments were the second best in history and much of last year’s crop was shipped late in the crop year after the global financial meltdown in the fall of 2008. 40% of all almonds grown in the US are shipped to Europe and the Euro is falling against the dollar, the Chinese have been re-selling into India and the Middle East, etc. Reasons abound why almond prices have declined so much. In the end, I am hard pressed to explain current prices on the basis of almond supplies and consumption. This leads me to conclude there are an excess of sellers! Many handlers are eager to clear out their inventories, clean out their facilities and go on vacation before harvest starts mid-August. Call pool growers have cash flow needs, handlers have cash flow needs to final on their grower pools, and trading has been very light. Prices have risen a dime or so in the last week, this is reflected in the previous paragraphs price information. So, perhaps weak sellers are thinning out. Europeans are big players in the almond industry setting early prices and they covet their August vacations. Look for a flurry of activity once the Objective Estimate is released July 8 as these savvy traders, and others around the world, will want a position on almonds before harvest starts. It’s likely to be a very compressed marketing year with a late crop, late start to sales, and the potential of a large crop on the horizon with very healthy and rested trees.
Posted April 30, 2010 by Dan Cummings Almond shipments remain strong, meaning there will be a somewhat small carry-out of 2009 crop to supplement a modest 2010 crop. Shipments for the 2009/10 crop year are now expected to conclude in July at 1.5 to 1.525 billion pounds. Looking ahead to this year’s harvest, one large almond trader recently announced their crop estimate at 1.44 billion pounds and most in the industry thought this was a reasonable estimate. The 2010 subjective almond crop estimate will be released next Thursday, May 6 at noon. The May Almond Board position report is scheduled for release Tuesday, May 11. The National Agricultural Statistics Service announced today that bearing acres in 2010 are 740,000, up 20,000 acres from last year and with and additional roughly 70,000 acres non-bearing.
Posted March 7, 2010 by Dan Cummings January shipments of almonds set another record at 122 million pounds, up 32% from last year. Shipments have set new records each of the last 12 months; save September alone which in itself was only off 2% from last year’s record. Estimates are now that California will ship nearly 1.55 billion pounds this year and end the year with a carry out of less than 200 million pounds, down from last year’s carry out of 413 million pounds. Unfortunately, much of these record shipments have come about at some of the lowest prices in the last ten years. Interestingly enough, prices have softened roughly 20 cents per pound from my last report with little volume trading as growers and buyers consider this year’s bloom and more sellers than buyers at these much improved prices. Even then, the remaining 25% or so of the crop to be sold should raise the return to growers a dime or more over last year’s below-the- cost-of -production return. This has been one of the most interesting almond blooms I have experienced. The El Niño weather pattern and a split storm trough vacillating in its entry into California resulted in weather forecasts with substantial changes day to day. Bee strength and availability was somewhat weaker than past years. I have heard bee colony audits reflect a decrease in average strength of roughly 1.5 frames per colony. There are numerous reports of collapsing hives and hives that did not build during the almond bloom. There were also beekeepers with some of the best hives they have had in years. Overall, the quality of hives in almond orchards had the greatest variability seen in recent history. This, coupled with the poorest pollinating weather since 2005, and forecasts of less than optimal post bloom weather, leaves a big question mark as to the potential for the 2010 almond crop, although most growers are still optimistic. Bee hours assessed as the number of hours over 55 degrees, without rain and winds (less than 15 miles per hour) during Nonpareil bloom were down from last year across the State with the exception of Chico and Arbuckle. Nonpareil bloom days were assessed at 12 to 13 days, down from a high of 17 to 19 days in 2006 and an average of 14 days. The Sacramento Valley received bee flight hours of 92 to 117% of last year; Northern San Joaquin Valley 72 to 81% of last year; Central San Joaquin Valley 55 to 75% of last year; and Southern San Joaquin Valley 68 to 76% of last year. Nonpareil bud set was off a bit with most pollinators showing very strong bloom. Again, most growers feel somewhat optimistic about their chances for a decent crop with some concern in the Central San Joaquin Valley. All attention is now on getting fertilizer on the trees, managing disease with the damp conditions and hope for improved post bloom weather which has proven to be so critical for crop retention and development. Blue Diamond posts a running commentary on the bloom and crop development at http://www.bluediamond.com/applications/in-the-field/index.cfm?navid=101.
Posted January 27, 2010 by Dan Cummings December shipments of almonds were over 147 million pounds, up a whopping 57.5% from last year, more than 50% greater than any previous December and truly a remarkable feat! China has now surpassed 100 million pounds, more than all of last year, and in just 5 months. Almond Board position reports can be found at: http://www.almondboard.com/AboutTheAlmondBoard/Pages/ResearchStats.aspx.
The value of almonds rose roughly 20 cents per pound across the board after these numbers were released. However, little trading activity is taking place during this traditionally quiet time in the market as new crop bloom is approaching and all eyes are on the weather.
Posted December 14, 2009 by Dan Cummings November shipments of almonds were a record 145 million pounds which was 23% more than last year and 12% more than the previous record set in November 2007. The industry has now shipped 61 million pounds more in the first 4 months of this crop year, or 12%, than any previous crop year. This is, in part, due to the favorable 2010 crop profile with more Nonpareil and large count pollenizer’s than expected which complements nicely the large carryout of small count standards from last year. Prices have climbed steadily since harvest. Unfortunately, much of the 2009 crop was sold at prices lower than today’s market and returns for the 2009 crop will likely not be much improved over 2008 returns from most handlers. The 2008 crop was sold into a declining market and 2009 crop sales started near the bottom and continued in a rising market. Grower prices are roughly $2.00 to $2.20 for Nonpareil depending on size, pollenizer’s have risen to as much as $1.70, with hard shells closing a huge gap to be priced nearly with other pollenizer’s or roughly $1.60. This dramatic closing of the spread between Nonpareil and pollenizer’s is very welcome for growers with disproportionately greater percentages of non-Nonpareil varieties!
Growers are reviewing their returns and contemplating another year of potentially expensive water. Growers are also concerned about accumulating sodium levels in the soil in many parts of the State. Cash flow is very tight for many, and once-routine operating bank loans are now far more difficult to secure.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted October 18, 2009 by Dan Cummings. Harvest is 98% completed in the field with a few wet Monterrey, Carmel and Fritz left to be recovered. Most in the industry seem to think the crop will come in around the 1.35 billion pound mark set by the National Agricultural Statistics Service back in late June. Nonpareil are running a little above expectations and pollinators a little below. This is welcome news to almond handlers. September almond shipments totaled 134 million pounds, down only slightly from last year’s record 137 million pounds. Field buying of almonds is quieter than at any time in recent memory for this time of the year. Grower prices are $1.90/lb. for Nonpareil, $1.40 Carmel, $1.15 - $1.20/California, $1.10 for hard-shells. The industry is eagerly awaiting India to enter the market in earnest having only purchased a little less than two thirds as many almonds year-to-date as this time last year. Nonpareil and other “in-shell” varieties lie in stockpiles to see if the in-shell market in India picks up. China is off to a strong start two months into the season with an increase in shipments of 80%. Growers are reviewing their returns and contemplating another year of potentially expensive water. Growers are also concerned about accumulating sodium levels in the soil in many parts of the State. Cash flow is very tight for many, and once-routine operating bank loans are now far more difficult to secure. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted September 9, 2009 by Dan Cummings.
Almond prices to growers have firmed to the range of $2.00 per pound for Nonpareil and $.90 to $1.25 for pollinators with the Carmel and large count Monterrey varieties at the higher end of this range and small count standards (mostly hard shell varieties) at the low end. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted August 1, 2009 by Dan Cummings.
There is often a lot of confusion regarding almond prices. First, prices to "the Trade" from Handlers are different than prices returned to the Grower after the Handler takes their cut. Second, there is currently a profound two tiered market in almond prices with Nonpareil receiving one price and pollinators receiving a much lower price. Today, offers to Growers for 2009 crop are in the range of Nonpareil at $1.75 per pound, Carmel at $1.10 per pound and California's (the vast majority of pollinator's) at $.85 per pound. Thus, if growers have half Nonpareil and half pollinators of equal yield, then the value of their almonds are worth an average price of $1.30 per pound. |
