Posted March 7, 2010 by Dan Cummings January shipments of almonds set another record at 122 million pounds, up 32% from last year. Shipments have set new records each of the last 12 months; save September alone which in itself was only off 2% from last year’s record. Estimates are now that California will ship nearly 1.55 billion pounds this year and end the year with a carry out of less than 200 million pounds, down from last year’s carry out of 413 million pounds. Unfortunately, much of these record shipments have come about at some of the lowest prices in the last ten years. Interestingly enough, prices have softened roughly 20 cents per pound from my last report with little volume trading as growers and buyers consider this year’s bloom and more sellers than buyers at these much improved prices. Even then, the remaining 25% or so of the crop to be sold should raise the return to growers a dime or more over last year’s below-the- cost-of -production return. This has been one of the most interesting almond blooms I have experienced. The El Niño weather pattern and a split storm trough vacillating in its entry into California resulted in weather forecasts with substantial changes day to day. Bee strength and availability was somewhat weaker than past years. I have heard bee colony audits reflect a decrease in average strength of roughly 1.5 frames per colony. There are numerous reports of collapsing hives and hives that did not build during the almond bloom. There were also beekeepers with some of the best hives they have had in years. Overall, the quality of hives in almond orchards had the greatest variability seen in recent history. This, coupled with the poorest pollinating weather since 2005, and forecasts of less than optimal post bloom weather, leaves a big question mark as to the potential for the 2010 almond crop, although most growers are still optimistic. Bee hours assessed as the number of hours over 55 degrees, without rain and winds (less than 15 miles per hour) during Nonpareil bloom were down from last year across the State with the exception of Chico and Arbuckle. Nonpareil bloom days were assessed at 12 to 13 days, down from a high of 17 to 19 days in 2006 and an average of 14 days. The Sacramento Valley received bee flight hours of 92 to 117% of last year; Northern San Joaquin Valley 72 to 81% of last year; Central San Joaquin Valley 55 to 75% of last year; and Southern San Joaquin Valley 68 to 76% of last year. Nonpareil bud set was off a bit with most pollinators showing very strong bloom. Again, most growers feel somewhat optimistic about their chances for a decent crop with some concern in the Central San Joaquin Valley. All attention is now on getting fertilizer on the trees, managing disease with the damp conditions and hope for improved post bloom weather which has proven to be so critical for crop retention and development. Blue Diamond posts a running commentary on the bloom and crop development at http://www.bluediamond.com/applications/in-the-field/index.cfm?navid=101.
Posted January 27, 2010 by Dan Cummings December shipments of almonds were over 147 million pounds, up a whopping 57.5% from last year, more than 50% greater than any previous December and truly a remarkable feat! China has now surpassed 100 million pounds, more than all of last year, and in just 5 months. Almond Board position reports can be found at: http://www.almondboard.com/AboutTheAlmondBoard/Pages/ResearchStats.aspx.
The value of almonds rose roughly 20 cents per pound across the board after these numbers were released. However, little trading activity is taking place during this traditionally quiet time in the market as new crop bloom is approaching and all eyes are on the weather.
Posted December 14, 2009 by Dan Cummings November shipments of almonds were a record 145 million pounds which was 23% more than last year and 12% more than the previous record set in November 2007. The industry has now shipped 61 million pounds more in the first 4 months of this crop year, or 12%, than any previous crop year. This is, in part, due to the favorable 2010 crop profile with more Nonpareil and large count pollenizer’s than expected which complements nicely the large carryout of small count standards from last year. Prices have climbed steadily since harvest. Unfortunately, much of the 2009 crop was sold at prices lower than today’s market and returns for the 2009 crop will likely not be much improved over 2008 returns from most handlers. The 2008 crop was sold into a declining market and 2009 crop sales started near the bottom and continued in a rising market. Grower prices are roughly $2.00 to $2.20 for Nonpareil depending on size, pollenizer’s have risen to as much as $1.70, with hard shells closing a huge gap to be priced nearly with other pollenizer’s or roughly $1.60. This dramatic closing of the spread between Nonpareil and pollenizer’s is very welcome for growers with disproportionately greater percentages of non-Nonpareil varieties!
Growers are reviewing their returns and contemplating another year of potentially expensive water. Growers are also concerned about accumulating sodium levels in the soil in many parts of the State. Cash flow is very tight for many, and once-routine operating bank loans are now far more difficult to secure.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted October 18, 2009 by Dan Cummings. Harvest is 98% completed in the field with a few wet Monterrey, Carmel and Fritz left to be recovered. Most in the industry seem to think the crop will come in around the 1.35 billion pound mark set by the National Agricultural Statistics Service back in late June. Nonpareil are running a little above expectations and pollinators a little below. This is welcome news to almond handlers. September almond shipments totaled 134 million pounds, down only slightly from last year’s record 137 million pounds. Field buying of almonds is quieter than at any time in recent memory for this time of the year. Grower prices are $1.90/lb. for Nonpareil, $1.40 Carmel, $1.15 - $1.20/California, $1.10 for hard-shells. The industry is eagerly awaiting India to enter the market in earnest having only purchased a little less than two thirds as many almonds year-to-date as this time last year. Nonpareil and other “in-shell” varieties lie in stockpiles to see if the in-shell market in India picks up. China is off to a strong start two months into the season with an increase in shipments of 80%. Growers are reviewing their returns and contemplating another year of potentially expensive water. Growers are also concerned about accumulating sodium levels in the soil in many parts of the State. Cash flow is very tight for many, and once-routine operating bank loans are now far more difficult to secure. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted September 9, 2009 by Dan Cummings.
Almond prices to growers have firmed to the range of $2.00 per pound for Nonpareil and $.90 to $1.25 for pollinators with the Carmel and large count Monterrey varieties at the higher end of this range and small count standards (mostly hard shell varieties) at the low end. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted August 1, 2009 by Dan Cummings.
There is often a lot of confusion regarding almond prices. First, prices to "the Trade" from Handlers are different than prices returned to the Grower after the Handler takes their cut. Second, there is currently a profound two tiered market in almond prices with Nonpareil receiving one price and pollinators receiving a much lower price. Today, offers to Growers for 2009 crop are in the range of Nonpareil at $1.75 per pound, Carmel at $1.10 per pound and California's (the vast majority of pollinator's) at $.85 per pound. Thus, if growers have half Nonpareil and half pollinators of equal yield, then the value of their almonds are worth an average price of $1.30 per pound. |